Just chipping in after my first listen.
Seemed clear to me right away that he was talking about his first marriage.
I found it kind of brutal to be honest, I'm not used to MK being so open about stuff like this. Is this his most nakedly autobiographical song ever? I know we've had the likes of R&J and GH but they were clouded in metaphor. And more recently we've had stuff like Laughs and Jokes, Basil and One Song at a Time, but they haven't focussed on something as hard hitting as his marriage collapsing.
I like the music - MK's guitar swells sound more like a pedal steel than ever.
I agree with LE that some of the lines have too many words and don't scan properly.
Overall though I like the song. I'll take an album full of this moody, ruminative stuff any day, but I understand why they went with a sort of upbeat single first.