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Author Topic: Europe?  (Read 27680 times)

Offlinetwm

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #75 on: October 17, 2012, 04:28:48 PM »
I haven't followed this thread nor contributed, as iIwish to avoid political arguements here (I have enough to do tryint to answer some of the comments about Dylan). One phrase caught my eye : All politicans lie. In the broadest sense, I agree with this statement but you have to be watchful.

On occasions, politicians do lie outright - sometimes because they think they can get away with it - sometimes because, for the sake of a favourable headline, they are prepared to risk a later challenge to the accuracy of what they've said - sometimes because what they really believe or want is not acceptable to voters in general - sometimes for short-term political advantage over their political opponents - and sometimes because telling the truth would ruin their reputation of future prospects.

More often, though, politicians are a bit more devious. A politican may sometimes be telling the truth [in the sense that every element of what he or she says is factually accurate]  but still be lying [in the sense that he or she is not presenting the whole picture]. Always ask: what are we, the voting public, not being told?  What's been missed out?  [For a period in my life, I had to interview people about their past work and most had a consistent and coherent life story to tell but, surprisingly often, there were gaps and the holes in the narrative, sections that were glossed over or unexplained jumps or bumps in the road]

When giving evidence in court, a witness is required to tell not only the truth but the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Since politicians do not apply this standard to their own statements, it is up to all of us to do it. Sadly, many voters do not seem to do this.

Maybe we should all be floating voters, without party allegiances or loyalty and without voting for any particular party out of mere habit, without careful forethought.

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #76 on: October 17, 2012, 07:40:08 PM »
Thank you for this twm. What you say is true!  ;)

No, apart from joking, which is truth in disguise, I have to admit that I understand some sort of lies, or occasions that lies are better than the truth. If a patient is about to die, it is better to lie to him, in order to give him hope thus making his last moments better. And I much feel that this is the case with us. We have been lied and lied upon, so that we accept laws and changes that are from certain a point irreversible, and now they expect us to die.   
I think that now even if we are told the truth and nothing but the truth or the wrath of God will turn them to dust, we might not believe them. But we deserve the truth, if anything, because the toll is greater than a job or a life, it is a nation.
One of the biggest lies of all is this: politicians promise before the elections. And the biggest lie of all is this "the voters are wise and can't be fooled and they will elect the best".  I have never believed them, mostly because none of them was any good to begin with and because what they used to promise, was illogical. But I have seen many people around me taking part and advantage of these illogical promises, in return for their vote. This is one of the reasons we suffer as a country. But once they are elected they do what they want, regardless of their promises or the main reason they are elected which is  TO DO WHAT IS BEST FOR THE COUNTRY AND ITS PEOPLE. And when you ask them, they say that people are not ready to hear/handle/ accept /understand what's good for them. When you have a roof over your head and food on the table, you tend to let many things go unquestioned. But this time has come and gone and now we are just waiting for the eviction note from our own country. Because that is what EU was about, after all.
See what is going on in every country in Europe. In the UK and France that are still considered stable, people are fed up with the lies. If not the next elections, in 8 years time the radicals left and right will represent the majority of the people. And both will try to return in a country based economy and view of the world. EU has failed, because instead of helping, some big countries took and still take advantage of the needy ones. The truth is before our eyes but it is too uncomfortable to focus and see.
Oh you got me going and I don't think that all this will make any sense. But it is all there in the previous posts. I wish I am wrong, because if I am not we are up against a very harsh future. But this is the value of the truth, when told: it cuts like a knife down to the very basics of human existence. Because , for example, the truth about the stock market is less complicated than we think, and it will mathematically lead to its collapse. 
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinetwm

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #77 on: October 18, 2012, 12:48:40 AM »
Truth is an arrow
But the gate is narrow
That it passes through


I've just watched part of a programme about New York City on the PBS America channel and this particular episode mentioned the fiscal crisis in that city in the 1970s. The President at first refused to bail the city out with loan guarantees:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ford_to_City.PNG

He did relent and the city did recover. Indeed, it paid off its debts a year early.

I do not dispute your analysis or arguement and I am aware of the dreadful financal cost and social burden that is being borne by the Greek people but there are some parallels. Greece has a larger population than New York City but not markedly so as these things go (10 million against 8 million, though Greater New York is nearer 19 million). In the 1970s, New York continued its welfare spending while its revenues fell. It took out loans to finance this but couldn't afford the interest. Crime rose dramatically. Parts of the city were subject to "landlord fires" (it was more beneficial to claim on the insurance than to renovate the buildings). There were labour strikes aplenty. The subway system was subject to increasing mechanical breakdown, as well as being unsafe. There was a day-long electrical blackout across the city. Police corruption and violence were rife. Parts of the city were unsafe, especially at night. This had all started in the late 1960s but, by the 1970s, the situation was absolultely dire. Slowly, New York recovered, though.

I say this not to argue against you but to indicate that, sometimes, when all seems lost, recovery is possible. But it doesn't happen quickly.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2012, 12:59:39 AM by twm »

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #78 on: October 23, 2012, 01:53:50 AM »
As I said before, it is not a matter of economy or politics. These are tools used to change are philosophy of life, our beliefs about freedom, honour, values.
I find little pieces of truth in various places. One of the latest finds is a documentary called "The light bulb conspiracy" You should check it out!
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinenababo

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #79 on: October 26, 2012, 06:53:07 PM »
I've just promised vgonis I would write something about Brazil's attempts to rapidly get over the blogal economic crisis.

First of all, I'm sorry for my limitation in English. Somethings won't be as clear as I intended to be when writing...

Well, firstly I think today issues are part of a greater crisis, started in 2008/2009 in the USA and for which Brazil decided to do exactly the other way round of everyone else.

While other countries urged to cut down public investments, salaries and to reduce the size of the government itself, Brazil's adminstration, with Lula da Silva, stimulated the economy. How they did it...

Billions of dollars to create construction jobs, the less expensive possible jobs, but in a economic area witha  wide range. More jobs in construction, more jobs in other sectors, more production of bulding materials, housing equipments, more credit from banks to allow people to buy things and build their houses. More money running in the economy is exaclty the opposite everyone else was doing.

But it didn't happen only in construction, but also in the automotive sector, agriculture, oil prospection and others with a quick return in terms of jobs, mainly. In totum, the government poured 20 billion dollars in strategic sectors to boost the creation of jobs.

In other front, more recently, the government is using its two official banks, among the 10 biggest brazilian financial institucions, to reduce the credit rates. The private sector had to follow. So everyone maintained their jobs and had cheaper money to keep moving the economy.

OK, many people lost their jobs in the first months of crisis, back in 2009. But most of the job cuts were due to the fear of businessmen of producing without a steady sales perspective. Once they saw that the economy was still running, the ones that didn't fire and kept producing earned more money that the ones in fear. Today, our unemployement rate is only 5,4%, the lowest in bazillion years.

Our GDP dereased 0.6% in 2009, but increased 7,5% next year. Today, the rates are low, but steadly positive.

I hope I could deliver a brief case explanation about Brazil's formula. I don't know if it would work anywhere else. Here, it did.

So, when I see announcements retirement programs cutting, the selling of national properties and companies***, wages reduction, freezing public investmnets, high credit rates, I think "how do they think this will put the economy back in track?" No way, in my opinion. If the national economy is restrained just to pay debts, what will emerge after the debt is payed, if it will ever be? On the other hand, people with jobs and money will contribute to increase the economy, keeping the businesses open, raising production, selling national's production overseas, bringing more money in. I don't know if this virtuosity circle will sustain around here, but for now it's pretty working.

*** When Brazil sold a large amount of its public companies, back in 1990/99, the result was a 85,2 billion dollars deposit national treasure. The profit of the same companies in the same time was 87,6 billion dollars...
Love over gold, mind over matter

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #80 on: October 26, 2012, 08:54:49 PM »
Nababo your use of English is great. Thank you for your post. It is nice to read a description from a person and not the newspapers. I think it is more reliable.

Some thought and questions.  I will not reveal if I am pro or against this or any plan. (oK, for the ones that have already read the previous posts it is obvious, or is it?)
I have heard the same suggestions about the recovery of Greece, but of course the not so great former minister Papandreou, had to rush to the IMF, and all  these plans were thrown away. And IMF has its own agenda and it surely has nothing to do with helping the countries to stand on their feet. But even without the IMF, it would be hard to restart the economy with no money and an established rotten political/governing system. Greece is a small country and with the "aid" of the EU, all productive forces and sources, were totally ruined. What I mean is that apart from our amount of mistakes, many decisions taken in EU and international level, were bound to affect the smaller countries. For example, inviting China and India in the World trade organization with almost no restrictions has turn all the small factories into non viable businesses, overnight.  Many of them moved in other countries, like Bulgaria, FYROM and Turkey. Some of them closed down and retired and everybody else is struggling with the situation.
Every passing year is worst than the one before and I feel like we are going deeper into a trap,with less chances to save our country.

If all economies are connected with bonds and stock markets, countries are bound to have problems, if a major one like the US collapses, or even if there is fear of collapse. How would Brazil react in a second bigger crisis, with such great investments out? Is Brazil disconnected from this network of "investments"?

The fixing of the prices in the stock market is beyond me. Here in Greece from the basic products we import mostly fuel and pharmaceutical.  If we could cut back in those two sectors we would be able to repay our debt in ten years. But that would cost millions of lives. Brazil is a big country, but could it rely on what it produces, without importing anything at all?  What are the main things Brazil needs? Where did they find the original sum of money to stimulate the economy? Do you have a big national debt and how long would it take to repay it? What is the cost for the environment? What is the rate of dependence on foreign investments? How sure are you for the political stability? 

I know that ideology exists, but in he western world is a mask for quick profit, while some other countries  believe in a left ideology, and practice it in several degrees and with different ways and results. How would you call Brazil's political direction? Apart from unemployment rates, do you have good and free health care  and education?  How would you describe the political rights and freedom?  The crime rate?

I believe that Greece has ways of getting over the crisis, but they just won't allow it. It is not a matter of trust or different approach to the problem. It is just a non flexible and never tested formula that simply uses Greece as a guinea pig. And even though they see that it doesn't work, they insist and blame it on the structure of the state (which needs fixing, but not demolishing) and apply new heavier loads to the nearly dead donkey.

Unfortunately, with the IMF and EU ways we are only getting in deeper debt and when we reach a certain point, we'll be left high and dry.
I can only suggest very painful solutions, now, but it won't help because people can not think rationally. And if you think of it, economics and politics have become a matter of undisputed, belief, when they were supposed to be the ripe fruits of knowledge and logic. But of course you can not philosophize with a hungry person.

Anyway, thank you very much Nababo for the time and effort to describe the Brazilian perspective. Unfortunately our politicians studied in Harvard and Yale and think that the only ways are the western ways, but they don't realize that these ways demand other supplementary powers, like the ones USA or Germany have.   
« Last Edit: October 26, 2012, 10:20:17 PM by vgonis »
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinenababo

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #81 on: October 26, 2012, 09:56:33 PM »
Hi, vgonis, thanks for the words.

I will try to answer some questions you have posted, by I'm afraid my knowledge is not enough for things that are economically complex. But let's see if I can point out my opinion, again.

I remember when Russia led the way to an international crisis, Argentina were the country, here in South America, which suffered the most. They even created a new extraofficial currency, based on changes of services between people. The country is still weaker than its neighbours, but it's better than than in the 90's. What did they do? Stopped paying international debts and renegociated them. Most countries and banks accepted. Better half of debts than nothing, they probably thought. So, Argentinian priority was to ensure money for the country, nor for the international monetary system. Wright or wrong?, anyone of us can judge by our own thoughts.

Now getting back to Brazil to comment on commercial barriers. Here, some sectors - like show or furniture factories, for instance - are protected, being able to compete against cheap imports. To do so, some countries are taxed (is this correct?) not to ruin our domestic micro-economy.

Regarding to the connection between the economies from the whole world, I think Brazil took advantage from the good mood of the international market, from 2002 to 2008, to equalize its debts and to form a strong money reservation in dollars. We don't own anything for the IMF since 2007 or so, just to private institutions, with official bond papers that are partly payed in time, mostly renewed, just like any other country. So now, my country doesn't suffer to much with all the money flying from country to country searching for better rates.

The mains products we import are heavy and medium machinery to industries and agriculture, electronis, toys and alcohol. We export a lot of primary products, like ore and grains.

As for our political situation, we are on the edge of a little crisis down here. Some leaders of the Worker's Party, leftist, are being judge by our supreme court and are being sentenced to decades on prision. They supporters say it's a political judgement, because the judicial branch would be allied to the conservative political field, despite being mostly indicated during the Lula da Silva term as president.

I don't believe it will bring instability to the country, but it's surelly renewing the bloody dispute between Worker's Party and the Social-democrat Party, which is not SD, but conservative. And all the press marches with the right-winged politics - in the tatcherism-fashion, we don't have nazi or fascists supporters here, even more among politicians.

People in general do not bother with ideological discussions around here. Worker's Party initiated a program of "minimum wage" to every family under some level of poverty, with some like 50 dollars per family that keep their children in school instead of putting them to work or whatever. It costs little, a year of "Bolsa-Familia" is less than a month of interests paid to banks. And, by the way, it's another way of putting the economy to move in small towns and poor neighbourhoods of big cities. Education and health are still big issues here, indeed, sided by violence and drugs. Both are free to everyone who don't want to pay private schools or medical plans. Public hospitals and healthcare centers suffer from long waiting times. Public schools don't have structure like the private ones, lacking laboratories and computers, for instance.

But again, is better than ever. Teachers from the public sector now have the warranty of a minimum wage and are more stimulated to work. The Congress just passed a law that requires the government (national, states and cities) to put at least 8,5% of all tribute takings in education.

In health, our cancer post-treatment is better in public sector than in the private institutions. But still there is much more people in need than public medics to attend them, hence the long lines at the hospitals.

But I think our biggest problem is the violence. There are organized groups which control the drug distribution, specially in Rio and Sampa, our big cities, but even in medium sized cities. And robberies resulting in assassionations or related to drug wars are still high. There are 45.000 citizes killed every year here, mainly young boys from 18 to 24 years.

In Rio de Janeiro, the federal government are supporting the local adminstration to put, in every favela, a policial post with good structure and a closer contact with the citizens, to bring "pacification" to the community. The results are starting to appear, and other cities are starting to copy the system.

I'm not saying Brazil is perfect. We are far away from it. We have millions and millions of people living in poverty. We have violence, we live with the absence of the government in portions of the country and even in big centres. But I look to the past and I can clearly see that we are improving. The Bolsa-Familia I've just told you is a big example. With a little amount of money, families are able to surpass poverty and to build better life conditions.

Well, I hope I have explained things to you. Thanks again for your compliments, but I feel I could do better if I was more skilled. It is hard for me to express things correctly in English, sometimes I have the idea clearly in Portuguese, but cannot put it in appropriated words. We have a say here in Brazil, when we don't understand something: "This is Greek to me".  8) I hope this won't be Greek to you  ;D
Love over gold, mind over matter

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #82 on: October 26, 2012, 11:29:39 PM »
Nababo, thank you very much for the time and effort! It is really fascinating to learn first hand for other countries. You are right in presenting the example of Argentina as a possible way to solve the problem in Greece. I really believe that this would have been the best solution 2-3 years ago. But Greece has some special characteristics that are very difficult to evaluate, since some factors are not controlled only by Greeks. Firstly, we are a small country in size, with few people (a bit less than 10 millions). The climate is excellent, but the terrain is rather harsh. Many mountains, few valleys and hundreds of small stony islands.
In the old days (until 60 years ago) each community was effectively cut off from the other (no roads, few cars, no electricity, rare radios) and therefore had to be self reliant. The central government had little power over the people, simply because it could not reach/help. But people back then had a stronger sense of the country as a unity called GREECE and had ideologies that led to the civil war, right after the WWII.


A break, since my babies got home and it is really late so I will try to continue tomorrow!
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinenababo

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #83 on: October 27, 2012, 02:49:24 AM »
Nababo, thank you very much for the time and effort! It is really fascinating to learn first hand for other countries. You are right in presenting the example of Argentina as a possible way to solve the problem in Greece. I really believe that this would have been the best solution 2-3 years ago. But Greece has some special characteristics that are very difficult to evaluate, since some factors are not controlled only by Greeks. Firstly, we are a small country in size, with few people (a bit less than 10 millions). The climate is excellent, but the terrain is rather harsh. Many mountains, few valleys and hundreds of small stony islands.
In the old days (until 60 years ago) each community was effectively cut off from the other (no roads, few cars, no electricity, rare radios) and therefore had to be self reliant. The central government had little power over the people, simply because it could not reach/help. But people back then had a stronger sense of the country as a unity called GREECE and had ideologies that led to the civil war, right after the WWII.
A break, since my babies got home and it is really late so I will try to continue tomorrow!

Thank you for the opportunity. And thanks for presenting more about your country. I've been to a few European countries, but never to Greece. It's a fault, I know, and I intend to redeem myself as far as I can.

Every country has its own situation, ways and means to get rid of economic troubles. I'm sure there's a way also to Greece, with an adequate plan to exploit historical and summer tourism, shipping construction and so on. But anything that is planned to be done must see the people firstly, not the bankers or the international creditors. What I like about Brazil is that a plan was made taking in account the needs of the population, not starving the poor more and more.

Kind regards, take care of your family!
Love over gold, mind over matter

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #84 on: November 09, 2012, 08:17:08 PM »
Nababo, read this post as well, in the general discussion.
Re: #22:2012.11.05 Madison, WI, Alliant Energy Center, USA (Political subject changed)

All this week, there were discussions about passing a new agreement with the IMF, EU and ECB. The laws were voted and passed (153 out of 300 voted yes) but the majority of people in Greece obviously disagree with them. As I have expected (and many Greeks are starting to realize by now) the new loan to pay back the old loans was not available (it was supposed to be available since September)  and the bonds that expire in the 15th of November (around 5 Billion Euros) can not be covered. The really puzzling thing is this: These bonds were bought by the ECB (European Central Bank)  from weary investors(commercial banks and European countries), in the 40 or 50 % of their original value, but ECB never accepted a haircut for these bonds in March (while it forced all the country's retirment funds to invest and then haircut their portfolio for the 80% of the value. What was left, 20% was not paid in cash!!!!So all the pension funds rely on the new loans from ECB, IMF and EU!!!!!) and now demands to be paid in full. I thought ECB was created by the European common funds to help Europe. How can this actions help Europe? What is worse is that the denial or delay of giving Greece this loan, causes an international ripple of disbelief and new lack of trust from investors. ("If their fellow counties don't trust them with money how can we?") So not only they don't help, they just make it worse.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2012, 10:24:02 AM by vgonis »
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #85 on: November 21, 2012, 11:36:49 PM »
Check this little video!
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #86 on: November 22, 2012, 01:08:35 AM »

This little video is the question and no reply that Greeks and Italians and Portuguese and Spanish people have been asking. It turns out that people have so much in common, but they don't know it. Because the national Mass media don't cover or downplay such news simply because they belong to the big interests, that gain the money and cause the crisis. And it is one thing not knowing and another not being able to do something...
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #87 on: November 22, 2012, 02:14:29 AM »




And yet another video explaining the crisis in simple words. Greece and Europe. And after all it is one and the same. The simple John is called to pay ...

Oh, by the way, if anyone gets to spend the time to see these, I have to warn you that I don't quite agree with all of it. As a matter of fact I don't agree with the bail out example of Boston -or New York that twm mentioned in a recent post (given that the USA central economy owes so much that if it defaults no one will be saved), but I really like the general direction that points to a solution that has more to do with people coming together and the true meaning of a European Union.
Another thing that is not really talked about is the perception of money and value.  And even though the numbers thrown in are true and work in favour of the point I also try to make, I hate to say it, but still money is seen as more than it really is, a simple tool. A tool that should be used and not stashed in piles. And laws about human values (human life, health, food, housing, education) should be above the laws about banks, loans, debts. And there is an obvious hint that I always try to make clear: The only way "investors" and banks have to  make these things happen, is by dividing people of Europe. Turning a nation against each other, on MORAL grounds. And these moral grounds (sadly enough that morals in general are in decline, if not extinct) are actually maskarated MONEY morals. The German people are led to think that they pay for the Greece bailout. They didn't have a raise in the last 5 years. And that is due to the lazy Greeks.  But the truth is somewhere else. See these small videos. Spend some time to see another side, to listen to a different opinion.  We can really make a difference. 
« Last Edit: November 22, 2012, 02:37:19 AM by vgonis »
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #88 on: November 22, 2012, 07:17:55 AM »
I apologise for the lack of my response VG, and I appreciate your vast  input and articulate thoughts here. When I have some time I will check your links...
Hey, i`ve got a truffle dog - finally a song the ordinary man can relate too!

Offlinevgonis

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Re: Europe?
« Reply #89 on: November 22, 2012, 10:28:27 AM »
Fletch I would post these things anyway. It is one of the few things I can do. No need to respond, just watch,  but I would be glad if you do! And watch out! You are on post 665!  ;D
Come on, it is not funny anymore.

 

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